Transmission Dynamics and Effectiveness of Control Measures during COVID-19 Surge, Taiwan, April-August 2021.

An unprecedented surge of COVID-19 cases in Taiwan in May 2021 led the government to implement strict nationwide control measures beginning May 15. During the surge, the government was able to bring the epidemic under control without a complete lockdown despite the cumulative case count reaching >14,400 and >780 deaths. We investigated the effectiveness of the public health and social measures instituted by the Taiwan government by quantifying the change in the effective reproduction number, which is a summary measure of the ability of the pathogen to spread through the population. The control measures that were instituted reduced the effective reproduction number from 2.0-3.3 to 0.6-0.7. This decrease was correlated with changes in mobility patterns in Taiwan, demonstrating that public compliance, active case finding, and contact tracing were effective measures in preventing further spread of the disease.

Taiwan's COVID-19 response: Timely case detection and quarantine, January to June 2020.

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has become severe threats to economic, societal, and healthcare systems. To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of the COVID-19 outbreak in Taiwan and evaluate the key interventions, we conducted a retrospective cohort study during January 17-June 30, 2020. As of June 30, the COVID-19 outbreak, including 447 laboratory-confirmed cases, was eliminated by mixed approaches: border control, enhanced surveillance, case detection with contact tracing, quarantine, and population-based interventions like face mask use. The improvement of median time from disease onset to notification (5 days [range -3 to 27] before March 1 to 1 day [range -8 to 22] after March 1) suggested the timeliness and comprehensiveness of surveillance and contact tracing. Travel restrictions with quarantine, resulting in fewer clusters, were also complementary to minimize disease spread. Under combined interventions, Taiwan successfully contained the COVID-19 spread within the country and minimized its impact on the society.

Comparison of Estimated Effectiveness of Case-Based and Population-Based Interventions on COVID-19 Containment in Taiwan.

Importance: Taiwan is one of the few countries with initial success in COVID-19 control without strict lockdown or school closure. The reasons remain to be fully elucidated. Objective: To compare and evaluate the effectiveness of case-based (including contact tracing and quarantine) and population-based (including social distancing and facial masking) interventions for COVID-19 in Taiwan. Design, Setting, and Participants: This comparative effectiveness study used a stochastic branching process model using COVID-19 epidemic data from Taiwan, an island nation of 23.6 million people, with no locally acquired cases of COVID-19 reported for 253 days between April and December 2020. Main Outcomes and Measures: Effective reproduction number of COVID-19 cases (the number of secondary cases generated by 1 primary case) and the probability of outbreak extinction (0 new cases within 20 generations). For model development and calibration, an estimation of the incubation period (interval from exposure to symptom onset), serial interval (time between symptom onset in an infector-infectee pair), and the statistical distribution of the number of any subsequent infections generated by 1 primary case was calculated. Results: This study analyzed data from 158 confirmed COVID-19 cases (median age, 45 years; interquartile range, 25-55 years; 84 men [53%]). An estimated 55% (95% credible interval [CrI], 41%-68%) of transmission events occurred during the presymptomatic stage. In our estimated analysis, case detection, contact tracing, and 14-day quarantine of close contacts (regardless of symptoms) was estimated to decrease the reproduction number from the counterfactual value of 2.50 to 1.53 (95% CrI, 1.50-1.57), which would not be sufficient for epidemic control, which requires a value of less than 1. In our estimated analysis, voluntary population-based interventions, if used alone, were estimated to have reduced the reproduction number to 1.30 (95% CrI, 1.03-1.58). Combined case-based and population-based interventions were estimated to reduce the reproduction number to below unity (0.85; 95% CrI, 0.78-0.89). Results were similar for additional analyses with influenza data and sensitivity analyses. Conclusions and Relevance: In this comparative effectiveness research study, the combination of case-based and population-based interventions (with wide adherence) may explain the success of COVID-19 control in Taiwan in 2020. Either category of interventions alone would have been insufficient, even in a country with an effective public health system and comprehensive contact tracing program. Mitigating the COVID-19 pandemic requires the collaborative effort of public health professionals and the general public.

Perceived uncertainty stress and its predictors among residents in China during the COVID-19 pandemic.

The prevalence of and risk factors for uncertainty stress among residents during the COVID-19 pandemic remain unclear. An online cross-sectional survey was conducted to explore and identify the risk factors for high perceived uncertainty stress among the general public in China during the COVID-19 outbreak. Information about the respondents' socioeconomic characteristics, knowledge of and attitudes towards COVID-19, perceived uncertainty stress, social capital, anxiety, and depressive symptoms was collected and analysed. Among the 1205 respondents, 45.3% (546) reported a high level of uncertainty stress. Multiple linear regression analysis indicated that anxiety (ß=3.871,P<0.001) and depression symptoms (ß=2.458, P<0.001), family residence (in towns or rural areas) (ß=0.947, P<0.001), lack of support for local epidemic control strategies (ß=1.253, P<0.001), worry about the pandemic (ß=1.191, P<0.001), and symptoms of weakness among family members (ß=1.525, P=0.002) were positively associated with perceived uncertainty stress. Cognitive social capital (ß=-0.883, P<0.001) and social networks (ß=-0.726, P<0.001) were negatively, but social participation (ß=0.714, P<0.001) was positively associated with perceived uncertainty stress. Our findings identify factors associated with a higher level of uncertainty stress and should be helpful in the consideration of effective policies and interventions for uncertainty stress during the initial phases of public health emergencies.

Risk assessment for COVID-19 pandemic in Taiwan.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Event-based surveillance and rapid risk assessment for acute public health events are essential in emerging infectious disease control. Since detecting the unusual signal in Wuhan in December 2019, Taiwan has been aligning risk management to policy planning via conducting regular risk assessments to combat the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). This article aims to provide some insights into Taiwan's experiences and corresponding actions for the outbreak. RESULTS: The COVID-19 risk level in Taiwan was raised to "moderate-to-high" in mid-January 2020 when neighboring countries had reported cases and the human-to-human transmission became obvious. The risk level became "high" on 24 January due to China's escalating epidemic situation and imposed a lockdown in Wuhan. We learned that the commander recognized the importance of risk assessments and considered advice from the experts was crucial in making the correct decision at the early stage of the crisis. CONCLUSIONS: Given the surge of COVID-19 cases globally, understanding the evidence-driven mobilizations via detailed risk assessments in Taiwan may be an example worth considering for other countries. We believe that strengthening a global epidemic intelligence network and sharing information in a timely and transparent manner are essential for confronting new challenges of COVID-19 and other emerging infectious diseases.

Influenza Vaccination and the Risk of COVID-19 Infection and Severe Illness in Older Adults in the United States (preprint)

The COVID-19 pandemic is an urgent threat worldwide with no vaccine available. It is important to evaluate whether influenza vaccination can reduce the risk of COVID-19 infection. This is a retrospective cross-sectional study with claims data from Symphony Health database from July 1, 2019, to June 30, 2020. Participants were adults aged 65 years old or older who had received the influenza vaccine between September 1 and December 31 of 2019. The objective was to measure the odds of COVID-19 infection and severe COVID-19 illness after January 15, 2020 among vaccinated and unvaccinated older adults. The adjusted odds ratio (aOR) of COVID-19 infection risk between the influenza-vaccination group and no-influenza-vaccination group was 0.76 (95% confidence interval (CI), 0.75–0.77). Among COVID-19 patients, the aOR of developing severe COVID-19 illness was 0.72 (95% CI, 0.68–0.76) between the influenza-vaccination group and the no-influenza-vaccination group. When the influenza-vaccination group and the other-vaccination group were compared, the aOR of COVID-19 infection was 0.95 (95% CI, 0.93–0.97), and the aOR of developing a severe COVID-19 illness was 0.95 (95% CI, 0.80–1.13). In conclusion, the influenza vaccine may marginally protect people from COVID-19 infection.

Contact tracing with digital assistance in Taiwan's COVID-19 outbreak response.

AIM: Comprehensive case investigation and contact tracing are crucial to prevent community spread of COVID-19. We demonstrated a utility of using traditional contact tracing measures supplemented with symptom tracking and contact management system to assist public health workers with high efficiency. METHODS: A centralized contact tracing system was developed to support data linkage, cross-jurisdictional coordination, and follow-up of contacts' health status. We illustrated the process of how digital tools support contact tracing and management of COVID-19 cases and measured the timeliness from case detection to contact monitoring to evaluate system performance. RESULTS: Among the 8051 close contacts of the 487 confirmed cases (16.5 close contacts/case, 95% CI [13.9-19.1]), the median elapsed time from last exposure to quarantine was three days (IQR 1-5). By implementing the approach of self-reporting using automatic text-messages and web-app, the percentage of health status updates from self-reporting increased from 22.5% to 61.5%. The high proportion of secondary cases detected via contact tracing (88%) might reduce the R0 to under one and minimize the impact of local transmission in the community. CONCLUSION: Comprehensive contact tracing and management with complementary technology would still be a pillar of strategies for containing outbreaks during de-escalation or early in the next wave of COVID-19 pandemic.

Effects of case- and population-based COVID-19 interventions in Taiwan (preprint)

In the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, broad usage of non-pharmaceutical interventions played a crucial role in controlling epidemics. However, the substantial economic and societal costs of continuous use of border controls, travel restrictions, and physical distancing measures suggest that these measures may not be sustainable and that policymakers have to seek strategies to lift the restrictions. Taiwan was one of the few countries that demonstrated initial success in eliminating the COVID-19 outbreak without strict lockdown or school closure. To understand the key contributors to the successful control, we applied a stochastic branching model to empirical case data to evaluate and compare the effectiveness of more targeted case-based (including contact tracing and quarantine) and less targeted population-based interventions (including social distancing and face mask use) in Taiwan. We found that case-based interventions alone would not be sufficient to contain the epidemic, even in a setting where a highly efficient contact tracing program was in place. The voluntary population-based interventions have reduced the reproduction numbers by more than 60% and have likely played a critical role at the early stage of the outbreak. Our analysis of Taiwan's success highlights that coordinated efforts from both the government and the citizens are indispensable in the fight against COVID-19 pandemic.

Contact Tracing Assessment of COVID-19 Transmission Dynamics in Taiwan and Risk at Different Exposure Periods Before and After Symptom Onset.

Importance: The dynamics of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) transmissibility are yet to be fully understood. Better understanding of the transmission dynamics is important for the development and evaluation of effective control policies. Objective: To delineate the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 and evaluate the transmission risk at different exposure window periods before and after symptom onset. Design, Setting, and Participants: This prospective case-ascertained study in Taiwan included laboratory-confirmed cases of COVID-19 and their contacts. The study period was from January 15 to March 18, 2020. All close contacts were quarantined at home for 14 days after their last exposure to the index case. During the quarantine period, any relevant symptoms (fever, cough, or other respiratory symptoms) of contacts triggered a COVID-19 test. The final follow-up date was April 2, 2020. Main Outcomes and Measures: Secondary clinical attack rate (considering symptomatic cases only) for different exposure time windows of the index cases and for different exposure settings (such as household, family, and health care). Results: We enrolled 100 confirmed patients, with a median age of 44 years (range, 11-88 years), including 44 men and 56 women. Among their 2761 close contacts, there were 22 paired index-secondary cases. The overall secondary clinical attack rate was 0.7% (95% CI, 0.4%-1.0%). The attack rate was higher among the 1818 contacts whose exposure to index cases started within 5 days of symptom onset (1.0% [95% CI, 0.6%-1.6%]) compared with those who were exposed later (0 cases from 852 contacts; 95% CI, 0%-0.4%). The 299 contacts with exclusive presymptomatic exposures were also at risk (attack rate, 0.7% [95% CI, 0.2%-2.4%]). The attack rate was higher among household (4.6% [95% CI, 2.3%-9.3%]) and nonhousehold (5.3% [95% CI, 2.1%-12.8%]) family contacts than that in health care or other settings. The attack rates were higher among those aged 40 to 59 years (1.1% [95% CI, 0.6%-2.1%]) and those aged 60 years and older (0.9% [95% CI, 0.3%-2.6%]). Conclusions and Relevance: In this study, high transmissibility of COVID-19 before and immediately after symptom onset suggests that finding and isolating symptomatic patients alone may not suffice to contain the epidemic, and more generalized measures may be required, such as social distancing.

High transmissibility of COVID-19 near symptom onset (preprint)

Background The dynamics of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) transmissibility after symptom onset remains unknown. Methods We conducted a prospective case-ascertained study on laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases and their contacts. Secondary clinical attack rate (considering symptomatic cases only) was analyzed for different exposure windows after symptom onset of index cases and for different exposure settings. Results Thirty-two confirmed patients were enrolled and 12 paired data (index-secondary cases) were identified among the 1,043 contacts. The secondary clinical attack rate was 0.9% (95% CI 0.5-1.7%). The attack rate was higher among those whose exposure to index cases started within five days of symptom onset (2.4%, 95% CI 1.1-4.5%) than those who were exposed later (zero case from 605 close contacts, 95% CI 0-0.61%). The attack rate was also higher among household contacts (13.6%, 95% CI 4.7-29.5%) and non-household family contacts (8.5%, 95% CI 2.4-20.3%) than that in healthcare or other settings. The higher secondary clinical attack rate for contacts near symptom onset remained when the analysis was restricted to household and family contacts. There was a trend of increasing attack rate with the age of contacts (p for trend < 0.001). Conclusions High transmissibility of COVID-19 near symptom onset suggests that finding and isolating symptomatic patients alone may not suffice to contain the epidemic, and more generalized social distancing measures are required. Rapid reduction of transmissibility over time implies that prolonged hospitalization of mild cases might not be necessary in large epidemics.